The Junta’s preparations to hold a census in Rakhine State even after losing control of nine townships, their recent loss of Thandwe airport, and the AA army closing in on the capital Sittwe, appears to be a farcical exercise devoid of any sense of on the ground reality.

On June 27, a preliminary campaign for the census was launched by the Junta in Sittwe town. Officials, led by Rakhine State Chief Minister U Htein Lin, erected a promotional billboard for the 2024 population census at U Ottama in Sittwe.

The Junta announced that the population census will be conducted from October 1 to 15. The purpose of the census is to gather population data that will serve as the basis for the government to manage social, economic, and administrative affairs.

a Rakhine-based social activist remarked, "In Rakhine State only Gwa and Manaung remain under Junta’s firm control. Conducting the population census in these two towns will not represent the entire Rakhine State”.

Since the resurgence of clashes in Rakhine State at the end of last year, the Arakan Army (AA) has liberated nine townships from the Junta’s control, while fighting continues fiercely in Maungdaw, Ann, Thandwe, and Taungup townships.

With Sittwe and Kyaukphyu also facing the looming potential of all-out confrontations, Gwa and Manaung are now the only two towns in Rakhine State that remain calm and peaceful.

On June 15, Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, who led the coup, announced that a nationwide census would be conducted as part of the election preparations.

Political analysts have concluded that the Junta's preparations to conduct a census in order to hold elections in Rakhine State under these circumstances are highly unrealistic.

"The Junta is desperately trying to hold an election as an exit strategy from the series of political setbacks it faces. However, with fighting raging across the country and millions of people displaced, conducting a census and holding an election is an entirely impossible task”, a Rakhine politician pointed out.

Junta announced that four steps have been established for the population census: preparation, conducting the census, verifying the lists, and publishing the report. The entire process is scheduled to last until March 2026.

According to the last nationwide population census conducted in 2014, Myanmar had a population of 51.49 million people, with 24.82 million men and 26.66 million women.