Six ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have jointly called for a boycott of the 10th anniversary ceremony of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which the junta will hold in the capital Naypyidaw on October 15.
The call was jointly issued on October 13 by the Karen National Union (KNU), Chin National Front (CNF), All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO), New Mon State Party – Anti-Dictatorship (NMSP-AD), and Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), all former NCA signatories.
The EAOs pointed out that the junta's 2021 coup had already nullified NCA provisions, and therefore, international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should not participate in the anniversary event, which could be seen as a sign of support for the illegal junta.
“The junta's so-called NCA related processes and its planned sham elections under the 2008 Constitution, which the military itself has violated, rendering it null and void, are merely attempts to legitimize its continuous control over Myanmar. These actions will neither resolve the national crisis nor alleviate the suffering of the people; they will only prolong the conflict,” the statement said.
KNU spokesperson Padoh Saw Taw Nee criticized certain EAOs still participating in junta-led NCA-related events, saying they are turning a blind eye to the real situation in Myanmar and merely deceiving one another.
“Both the junta and these groups are lying to each other. Everyone can see how badly the country is suffering; it is painfully obvious. Even now, holding NCA-related events makes no sense; there is no chance of success. Yet they keep organizing and attending these events as if nothing is wrong in Myanmar,” he said.
The KNU, PNLO, CNF, ABSDF, Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army – Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), and Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), a total of eight organizations, signed the NCA on October 15, 2015, during the presidency of U Thein Sein.
Then, during the National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government, the NMSP and LDU also signed the NCA in February 2018, bringing the total number of signatory EAOs to ten.
“After the coup, the EAOs split into two sides, those that decided to fight the junta and those that continued to deal with the regime. The groups that issued this statement are the resistance EAOs. What they’re saying is that the NCA no longer exists. But the junta is trying to make it look like the NCA is still alive because that serves its own interests,” a veteran Arakan (Rakhine) politician said.
Among the former NCA signatories, the KNU, CNF, and ABSDF strongly rejected the coup and returned to armed resistance against the military regime.
Within the NMSP-AD and PNLO, factions split between those who wanted to continue upholding the NCA and those who chose to revolt against the junta.
“Instead of just making statements like this, the resistance EAOs should clearly declare that they are permanently withdrawing from the NCA. That would make their position much clearer. They should also urge other EAOs to do the same,” the aforementioned Arakan politician added.
The junta staged the coup and unilaterally annulled the 2020 election results, which the NLD had won, citing unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud. This act reignited the civil war, and the junta has since lost around 100 towns to EAOs and resistance forces.
The junta is using the NCA framework in an attempt to find a way out of the political and military crises it has faced since the coup, while also preparing to hold its own election in a bid to gain international recognition.
“The NCA anniversary in Naypyidaw will likely be attended only by EAOs that still have close ties with the junta, like the RCSS, ALP, KNU/KNLA-PC, and DKBA. There are also reports that the junta has invited other EAOs that never signed the NCA. But no matter who shows up, the fact remains that the event is meant to serve the junta’s interests,” said a political analyst closely monitoring the situation in Myanmar.
The junta announced that the NCA anniversary will be held in Naypyidaw from October 15 to 17, along with a workshop aimed at paving the way for the election it plans to hold in phases starting on December 28.
Currently, former NCA signatory groups, including the KNU, CNF, ABSDF, and NMSP-AD, are engaged in fierce armed resistance against the junta. No matter how much the junta promotes the NCA as a genuine path to peace, it is becoming increasingly clear that both the EAOs and the public are losing faith in it.
Furthermore, the NCA requires that the government, parliament, Tatmadaw (Myanmar military), political parties, and EAOs all participate in the discussions. However, since the junta dissolved parliament after the coup, further NCA talks are no longer possible, and all peace implementation efforts have come to a standstill.
