The junta, operating out of Kale Town in Sagaing Region's Kale Township, is also preparing to launch an offensive in neighboring Chin State.

The junta is currently conducting military operations with significant manpower to neutralize resistance forces along the Tamu-Kale-Gangaw Highway, linking Kale Town to Tamu in the north and Gangaw in the south. Leveraging this momentum, the junta could potentially advance into Thantlang, Falam, and Tonzang townships in Chin State, according to Chin resistance forces and military analysts.

“The junta’s main goal is to re-enter Chin State. It has also announced elections in three towns there, including Thantlang, signaling its intent to regain full control of these areas. The townships where these towns are located need to seriously consider bolstering their combat readiness. The junta is likely to send troops into Chin State from Kale Town, as well as from Tilin (Htilin) and Gangaw in Magway Region. In particular, it appears poised to launch an offensive against the three towns slated for elections,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a former junta officer who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), an anti-coup campaign in which civil servants and security personnel refuse to work for the coup regime.

The junta has deployed troops from the headquarters of its main combat units, Light Infantry Divisions 99 and 33 (LID 99 and 33), to the Regional Operations Command (ROC) in Kale as reinforcements. These troops have been split into two groups, with one moving north and the other south of Kale Town to conduct operations. The columns advancing south are likely aiming to push into Chin State.

On October 27, the Chinland Defense Force–Civic Defense Militia Siyin (CDF-CDM Siyin) announced the temporary closure of the Kale–Tedim Road and motorcycle lanes after a large junta force approached areas along the border of Kale Township and northern Chin State under its control.

The junta also airlifted reinforcements and ammunition from Kale to the Light Infantry Battalion 269 (LIB 269) base in Tedim, Chin State’s Tedim Township, via helicopters on October 26 and 27, Chin resistance forces reported.

A spokesperson for the Tonzang People’s Administration said each helicopter can carry about 20 soldiers, meaning the junta likely sent around 100 reinforcements to Tedim.

Captain Zin Yaw, now a military analyst, and some Chin resistance forces believe that even though the junta is sending additional troops to Tedim, the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA), armed by the junta, would likely lead any attack on Tonzang Town if the offensive begins.

“Yes, the junta has sent reinforcements to Tedim, but the number is probably only around 30. The ZRA is likely to take the lead in any attack on Tonzang near Tedim, so I think these 30 or so new troops will mostly serve as garrison forces to secure the town,” Captain Zin Yaw said.

The Tonzang People’s Administration spokesperson and Captain Zin Yaw had differing estimates on the number of reinforcements the junta sent to Tedim.

Junta columns operating south of Kale Town entered Kyunchaung Village in Kale Township on October 27 and set fire to several houses. The next day, October 28, they ransacked another village, Htaukkyant, in Kale Township and burned more houses.

On October 26, the junta offloaded ammunition, supplies, and soldiers from 21 military trucks inside the Kale Technological University compound. Local witnesses reported that it also used 10 large, metal-plated vehicles to transport a 122 mm howitzer, smaller artillery pieces, and boxes of artillery shells.

The junta has announced that it will conduct the election in phases. In Chin State, Phase 1 voting on December 28 will cover Thantlang, Falam, and Tonzang towns, while the junta-controlled Union Election Commission (UEC) stated that holding votes in other Chin State towns is not yet feasible.