The junta is carrying out coordinated military operations with its army, navy, and air force against Arakan Army (AA)-controlled areas in Arakan (Rakhine) and Chin states.
On September 26, the junta launched an airstrike on Taungup Town in Arakan State’s Taungup Township, followed by air raids and naval bombardments on Thandwe Township in the same state on September 27 and 28.
On September 29, the junta shelled Paletwa Township in Chin State and Rathedaung Township in Arakan State with artillery. These attacks have killed four civilians and injured at least 26 in AA-controlled areas in recent days.
Military and political analysts have suggested that the junta is targeting innocent civilians in retaliation for setbacks in its fight against the AA.
“The junta is losing the fight in Arakan State and is on the verge of losing the entire region. That’s why it’s resorting to cruel tactics against civilians, instead of fighting where the battles should be, between armed forces,” said U Myo Kyaw, the secretary general of the Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) party.
“It looks like the junta thinks that by spreading fear among the people, it can weaken the AA’s operations. That’s why the AA is urging everyone to stay on constant military alert,” he added.
On September 29, the AA cautioned that even in parts of Arakan State with no active clashes, residents should remain vigilant for possible airstrikes and avoid large gatherings that might attract the junta’s pilots.
At present, the junta is conducting operations against the AA in three regions bordering Arakan State but is facing heavy setbacks, with junta-aligned militia members deserting the battlefields as their morale crumbles.
Despite facing setbacks on the battlefield, the junta has not given up on its dream of retaking AA-controlled townships of Thandwe, Taungup, Gwa, and Ann in southern Arakan State and holding elections there under its supervision.
U Myo Kyaw suggested that the junta is therefore continuing its military operations, holding onto the slim hope of regaining control of these townships before the election at the end of December.
However, there is also a widespread view that the junta’s ground offensives to enter Arakan State have very little chance of success.
“Recent statements from the junta show it still clings to the desire to hold elections in Ann, Taungup, Thandwe, and Gwa townships. Lately, it has been stepping up attacks on Taungup and Thandwe, using the air force and navy along with ground offensives,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a former junta officer who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), an anti-coup campaign in which civil servants and security personnel refuse to work for the coup regime.
“For the junta to send ground forces to Paletwa, it would first have to overcome the Chin resistance forces along the route. That’s why it appears to be relying on airstrikes in Paletwa while focusing more on the four towns in southern Arakan. The junta is attempting to reach Ann by sending troops from Magway Region and plans to attack Taungup from Bago Region. Since Thandwe and Gwa aren’t reachable by land, the junta will likely strike from the coast,” he added.
The junta has announced that the election will take place in phases, with Phase 1 voting scheduled for December 28 in Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung townships in Arakan State, which remain under its control.
The junta has already admitted that, among AA-controlled townships in Arakan State, elections are only likely in Ann, Taungup, Thandwe, and Gwa, while the others have no chance.
According to the AA, fighting is currently underway in parts of Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady regions bordering Arakan State, as the junta intensifies its military operations to enter AA-controlled areas.
