While the new administration of coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing has said it is open to talks with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the junta is preparing to launch simultaneous offensives on multiple fronts in Kachin State.

On April 20, Min Aung Hlaing said he planned to hold talks with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) within the next 100 days and called on the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and other resistance fighters to lay down their arms.

However, in Kachin State, there is no indication that the junta is pursuing peace efforts, with only signs of continued preparations for war, said Colonel Naw Bu, the spokesperson for the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), the political arm of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

“We’re aware that the junta has announced plans to hold peace talks. However, in Kachin State, there has been no sign of any real action toward that. This suggests that the junta intends to continue asserting control here. In short, fighting in Kachin State is likely to continue,” he told KNG.

The junta has dispatched more than 400 vehicles, including armored ones carrying soldiers, ammunition, and supplies, from Mandalay—central Myanmar’s largest city—to Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State.

A convoy of around 100 of these vehicles arrived in Myitkyina on May 12 and was welcomed by junta-appointed members of the Kachin State administration.

To secure the route for the reinforcement convoy, the junta launched successive attacks and captured resistance-controlled towns of Banmauk, Indaw, Tigyaing, Katha, and Maw Luu in Sagaing Region, which borders Kachin State, between February and April.

A Kachin political analyst suggested that the junta’s recent deployment of a large contingent of troops into Kachin State, shortly after seizing five towns near its border, could signal more concentrated operations in the region and a possible escalation of the military situation.

“It appears that the junta intends to retake all the territory it has lost. It likely believes that doing so would demonstrate the strength and credibility of the new administration to both the international community and the public. As a result, it will likely try to regain all lost ground in Kachin State. It remains to be seen how quickly the regime can achieve this goal,” he said.

At present, intense fighting is ongoing in Bhamo, Hpakant, and Shwegu townships in Kachin State. The junta is also deploying additional troops to Waingmaw and Sumprabum townships.

The junta deployed around 200 additional troops to Hpakant Township between early April and May. Fighting continues in Lone Khin, Hmawsizar, and Kudayhmaw villages in the township.

Shortly after the junta announced that it had regained full control of the highway connecting Mandalay and Myitkyina, fierce fighting broke out in townships such as Shwegu and Mabein and has continued for more than a week, according to the KIO.

Colonel Naw Bu suggested that the fighting in Mabein, a northern Shan State town on the eastern bank of the Ayeyarwady River near Shwegu in Kachin State, is due to the junta’s attempts to advance toward Bhamo from the area.

“We believe the junta may be preparing to advance toward Bhamo. With the rainy season having begun, there is also a possibility that warships could move upstream along the Ayeyarwady River. That is likely why the junta has launched operations in those areas,” he said.

The junta is currently attacking KIA and allied PDF positions in Shwegu Township and is also attempting to retake Mabein Town, which is under KIA control.

Although the junta has declared control of five towns—Banmauk, Indaw, Tigyaing, Katha, and Maw Luu—sporadic skirmishes are still taking place in nearby areas, a resistance fighter reported.

“Yes, the junta has managed to take control of Maw Luu and Indaw, but it has not yet established a firm foothold or the ability to govern effectively. The towns remain surrounded by resistance forces, so fighting is still ongoing,” he explained.

Locals said the junta has also significantly stepped up military preparations in Monghnyin, Mogaung, Waingmaw, and Sumprabum townships in Kachin State.

On May 19, troops loaded onto about 30 military trucks sent from Myitkyina to Waingmaw Township were deployed and stationed in Mongnar Village.

The junta is also preparing to launch an offensive against another KIA-controlled town, Sumprabum, and is massing troops and weapons in Tanghpe Village in Myitkyina Township.

Local KIA sources said the junta is also making military preparations in surrounding areas to retake Sadon, Kan Paik Ti, Chipwi, and Tsawlaw towns, located in the easternmost part of Kachin State and key hubs for border trade with China.

Meanwhile, in Monghnyin and Mogaung townships, more than 500 junta soldiers are reportedly on standby, ready to march toward Hpakant at any time.

All of the towns targeted by the junta for military operations are included in the list of areas placed under martial law by the junta on April 20.

The junta captured Takaung Town at the end of March and subsequently seized Indaw, Tigyaing, Katha, and Maw Luu in succession.