After the junta recaptured the strategically important town of Falam and the nearby Surbung Airport in northern Chin State, it is likely to launch further offensives in other liberated areas—a term used for resistance-controlled territories in Chin State, military analysts said.

Falam, which the Chin Brotherhood (CB) Alliance had controlled for about a year, was recaptured by the junta on April 25 following a six-month large-scale operation involving ground offensives, heavy airstrikes, and sustained artillery shelling.

“The junta’s recapture of Falam means it now controls the entire Kale–Taingen–Falam–Hakha Road. With Surbung Airport back in its hands, the regime can also carry out resupply operations more effectively. Troops who recently seized Falam have not even had a chance to rest and are already conducting clearance operations along the Falam–Hakha Road. The junta may also push further offensives toward Rihkhawdar Town and other border areas, aiming to eventually link up with its forces in Thantlang Township. In this context, towns such as Rihkhawdar and Tonzang in northern Chin State now face a serious risk of junta attacks,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a former junta officer who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM)—where civil servants and security personnel refuse to work for the regime.

The Chin resistance coalition held out for a period to avoid losing Falam, but the junta’s overwhelming use of force repeatedly pounded their positions. In the end, they could no longer withstand the pressure and were forced to retreat. Military analysts also pointed to ammunition shortages among resistance forces as a key reason for the loss of Falam. They warned that if the problem persists, resistance forces may struggle to hold out in the long-term fighting expected in Rihkhawdar and Thantlang, both important trade and military hubs in northern Chin State.

After capturing Falam, the junta’s next military objective may be to reopen border trade routes with India, and operations in northern Chin State will be crucial to achieving that goal.

On April 26, a junta statement on the military situation in Falam said it would continue to intensify its so-called ‘counter-terrorism’ operations, aiming to completely eliminate Chin resistance forces in Chin State.

According to testimony from some regime soldiers captured by Chin resistance forces during the Battle of Falam, the junta had already been planning to regain control of the border trade route and eventually assert full control over Chin State after capturing Falam.

“The junta has prepared a step-by-step plan to take control of Surbung Airport and the border trade routes. Once it secures the airport, it will be able to airlift weapons and supplies into Chin State for its troops. The long-term aim, according to the plan, is to bring the entire Chin State under control. However, this is not seen as a short-term objective, but something more likely tied to 2027 or 2028. In that sense, the recapture of Falam and Surbung is about more than just a town and an airport—it gives the junta access to key assets central to its military strategy,” said Salai Van Sui San, the spokesperson for the Institute of Chin Affairs (ICA).

After the junta launches an offensive along the Kale–Falam route into resistance-held areas in northern Chin State, it is also likely to deploy battalions based in neighboring Magway Region to launch similar attacks in southern Chin State.

Since April 25, the junta has deployed its forces in Kangyi, a key crossroads village on the route linking Arakan (Rakhine) State, Chin State, and Magway Region, located about 10 miles from Mindat Town in Chin State. Military analysts said the move appears aimed at cutting off the resistance’s logistical movements.

Although the junta has taken control of Falam Town, fighting between its forces and resistance groups in Falam Township is still ongoing, according to resistance frontline sources.

Skirmishes broke out in the villages of Laizo, Lungpi, and Rial Tii in Falam Township on April 26, a day after Falam Town fell, when junta troops began advancing along the Falam–Hakha Road.

Clashes also broke out along the Kale–Falam Road. In fighting between Taingen and Zotung villages on April 26, Salai Thein Kyaw, a platoon commander of the Chinland Defence Force–Zotung (CDF–Zotung), was killed, his unit announced.

When the junta attacked Falam Town, forces under the Chinland Council–run Government of Chinland and the CB Alliance jointly mounted resistance. During the six-month-long junta operation, both sides suffered significant casualties.

Chin State comprises nine townships, with Mindat, Matupi, Kanpetlet, Tonzang, Thantlang, and Paletwa under the control of Chin resistance forces and the Arakan Army (AA), while the urban areas of Hakha, Tedim, and Falam townships are now controlled by the junta.