The junta is preparing to launch an offensive to retake Ponnagyun Town from the Arakan Army (AA) in Arakan (Rakhine) State, according to military analysts.
The AA has controlled Ponnagyun Town since 4 March 2024. The town is in Ponnagyun Township, not far from the junta-controlled Sittwe City, the capital of Arakan State in Sittwe Township.
Since 20 July 2025, the junta has been deploying a series of reinforcements to its forces stationed in the Sittwe Township villages of Amyintkyun, Kyauktanchay, Kankawkyun, and Zawmadat, close to the border with Ponnagyun Township, according to a local military analyst.
From those villages the junta has been shelling the Ponnagyun Township villages of Aidin, Kywehto, Kuntaung, Padaytha, and Sininngyi which has caused residents to flee their homes.
The military analyst said to DMG: “The large reinforcements suggest the junta is gearing up to launch an offensive to recapture Ponnagyun Town. Just like it’s been stepping up efforts to retake towns in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region, it looks like it’s preparing to do the same in Arakan State.”
Explaining the current situation he said: “The situation along the border between Sittwe and Ponnagyun townships is really tense right now. The junta’s been sending in heavy reinforcements, and there are reports it might launch an offensive on Ponnagyun Town soon. Some locals from villages on the edge of Ponnagyun Township have already started evacuating.”
In Sittwe Township there have been artillery exchanges between the junta and the AA, but no fighting on the ground. However, since mid-July, the junta has been expanding its presence in the township and deploying additional troops there.
This year the junta has been concentrating its military efforts on launching large-scale offensives to reclaim territories lost to the resistance in Shan and Kachin states and Mandalay and Sagaing regions and it has had some successes. It has also been preparing for an Arakan State offensive by sending reinforcements by river from Ayeyarwady Region to Arakan State.
Captain Zin Yaw is a former military officer who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), an anti-junta movement made up of people who worked for the government and now refuse to do so.
He said: “The junta is eager to repeat the military triumphs it has recently had in northern and southern Shan States and wants to create a similar situation in Arakan State. It’s trying to take back as much lost territory as possible before the elections it plans to hold. The buildup of troops around Ponnagyun Township could mean the junta is aiming to recapture at least one of the towns lost to the AA in Arakan State, and Ponnagyun is the most likely target before the election.”
But, he cautioned that the geography of Arakan State is very different to the geography of northern Shan State and Mandalay Region where the junta has had some recent successes. It makes it harder for the junta to attack resistance positions with troops and forces them to rely on artillery barrages instead.
Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung are the only major cities in Arakan State that the AA has not yet captured. Though it has been attacking those areas, it has not yet launched major offensives against them.
