Burma News International - Myanmar Peace Monitor (BNI-MPM) reported that the junta conducted 637 airstrikes across Myanmar from the start of 2025 to the end of June and predicted that military conflict could escalate due to the junta’s planned upcoming election.
The MPM, the peace process monitoring program of BNI—a coalition of 15 ethnic media agencies—made the prediction during an online book launch on August 26 for ‘Deciphering Myanmar's Peace Process: A Reference Guide (2024–2025)’.
The junta announced that it will hold the election in phases, with the first round of voting scheduled for December 28 in 102 townships under its firm control.
According to BNI-MPM data, over 700 armed clashes of varying intensity occurred across Myanmar in the first half of 2025, alongside 637 airstrikes by the junta. BNI-MPM warned that the junta’s unilaterally planned elections could further intensify the ongoing conflict.
“Military conflicts have existed for a long time, but we’ve noticed that their intensity has increased as the election approach. The junta is trying to expand its control over more areas ahead of the elections and is carrying out military operations to do so. To achieve this, it’s relying heavily on its air power. Towns that remain outside the junta’s control now face a serious and growing risk of airstrikes,” said BNI coordinator Ko Hnin Ko.
According to BNI-MPM’s 2024–25 reference guide, 94 towns across Myanmar are under the control of resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). These include Kyeikdon, Lay Kay Kaw, and Hpapun, all held by the Karen National Union (KNU) in Karen State. BNI-MPM classified Myawaddy—listed by the junta in its phase one election plan—as being under junta control.
The junta issued a new law on July 19 allowing the maximum penalty of death for acts deemed to disrupt or undermine the election. However, BNI warned that this measure could trigger even greater violence during the electoral process.
“It’s impossible to say there won’t be violence during the election period. The junta has already warned it will take strict action against anyone who violates the election law, and that law allows for the death penalty for such violations,” said Daw Tin Tin Nyo, Managing Director of the BNI.
According to BNI-MPM records, the junta carried out over 1,000 airstrikes across 13 states and regions in Myanmar between April 2024 and April 2025, killing 1,330 civilians.
With the junta significantly ramping up airstrikes, the number of attacks in the first half of 2025 could be eight times higher than in the first year following the coup.
BNI-MPM has been monitoring and analyzing the developments and structures of Myanmar’s peace process, publishing its findings almost annually as reference guides titled ‘Deciphering Myanmar's Peace Process’. The most recent publication marks the 10th edition.
