Arakanese political analysts say the military junta’s ostensible efforts to repatriate Muslims from Bangladesh are unlikely to succeed as long as political instability prevails in Myanmar.

More than 700,000 Muslims fled to Bangladesh in 2016 and 2017, after the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown that it described as “clearance operations” following two separate attacks on security forces by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA).

U Hla Thein, a spokesman for the Arakan State military council, told DMG that the regime is currently in talks to accept Muslim returnees from Bangladesh and to relocate them to Taung Pyo Let Wae, Ngarkhuya and Hla Poe Khaung repatriation sites in northern Arakan State’s Maungdaw Township.

“Recently, the governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh have discussed ways to accept Muslims. We are planning to accept 150 Muslims a week, but we have yet to set a timeframe for the returnees,” he added.

U Hla Thein said a list of 700 Muslim returnees to be repatriated soon has been sent to Myanmar, and that the list is being coordinated with the Bangladeshi government at the union level.

But U Pe Than, an Arakanese political analyst, said the process was unlikely to take place as Muslim refugees in Bangladesh weigh the ongoing political turmoil in Myanmar.

“Muslims will not be able to return without political stability in Myanmar. Muslims also need to decide whether they can be secure in the current political situation in Myanmar. Without political security, they will not be able to return to Myanmar,” he added.

In addition to the widespread backlash to the military coup that has wracked mainland Myanmar for more than 16 months, the Myanmar military and Arakan Army are said to be at risk of full-fledged conflict at any time due to military tensions that have escalated in Arakan State over recent months.

Dr. Aye Maung, a veteran Arakanese politician, said prospective Muslim returnees would be considering their political and security futures before committing to repatriation.

“Muslims who have fled to Bangladesh will not return unless the government recognises them as citizens,” he said. “Muslims who have fled for security reasons may return here from Bangladesh if they think their area is peaceful and stable.”

Arakanese political analysts say the military junta needs to clarify its repatriation plans for Muslim returnees.