Although armed conflicts in Myanmar declined in 2025, mass killings targeting civilians continued to rise, the Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP-Myanmar) reported.
The State of Myanmar 2025-26 survey by ISP-Myanmar offers a detailed analysis of the past year. It found that armed conflicts in 2025 fell by nearly 28 percent compared to 2024, and by 55 percent compared to the peak in 2022.
In Mon State, the People’s Defense Force (PDF) has seen a decline in its offensive capabilities due to the relocation of several columns, Nai Tala Nai, head of the Defense Department of the Mon State Federal Council (MSFC), told Than Lwin Times.
“We had to move PDF battalions in Mon State to the Sittang River basin and Yangon Region, and that weakened our existing formations. Because of that, our offensive capability has gone down. On top of that, the enemy’s drones and jamming technologies have become more advanced, which makes it harder for us to carry out operations. So, the pace of military operations has slowed a bit,” he explained.
ISP-Myanmar noted that attacks alternate between junta and resistance forces, leaving neither side able to achieve a decisive victory.
Although the junta had previously suffered major losses in territorial control and faced challenges in gaining international legitimacy, as well as the threat of potential intervention from China, it has managed to regroup by exploiting the resistance forces’ inability to make practical, effective decisions, the assessment concluded.
Since the coup, resistance forces had taken full control of at least 256,000 square kilometers, or 38 percent of Myanmar’s total territory.
However, in 2025, the junta regained 26 of the bases and camps it had lost, although at least 150 remain under resistance control. Among towns lost since the coup, the junta recaptured 15, while resistance forces continue to control 87.
Meanwhile, the human cost of the conflict remains severe. Nationwide, there were at least 32 mass killing incidents in 2025, each involving the deaths of 10 or more civilians, resulting in at least 599 civilian deaths, according to ISP-Myanmar.
These mass killings include airstrikes, cases of people being burned to death, artillery shelling, arbitrary killings by junta columns, and attacks carried out by other armed groups.
Nai Aue Mon, director of the Human Rights Foundation of Monland (HURFOM), highlighted the impact on civilians in Mon State.
“Looking back over the past year, the consequences of the conflict and the military impact on civilians were enormous. And that’s not even counting the human rights violations people face every day. Arbitrary arrests, coercion, and extortion are all linked to the conflict. There have been cases of forced abductions for conscription and ransom demands for release from detention,” he said.
In Mon State, there were around 380 artillery attacks and 105 airstrikes involving drones, helicopters, and jet fighters in 2025. About 180 clashes were recorded, damaging between 900 and 1,400 houses and causing 105 to 125 civilian deaths, HURFOM reported.
The junta is currently conducting a phased election, which it hopes will serve as an exit from ongoing armed resistance and international pressure. The third and final round of voting is scheduled for January 25.
