The junta has recaptured 11.3 percent of the territory it lost in northern Shan State during ‘Operation 1027’, a major military campaign launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) reported.
The junta has regained control of Lashio, Naungcho (Nawnghkio), Thibaw (Hsipaw), and Momeik (Mongmit) in northern Shan State, as well as Mogok in Mandalay Region, which it had previously lost. Lashio, Mogok, and Mongmit were restored to junta control following Chinese intervention.
Under the ceasefire agreement reached in Kunming, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, pledged to withdraw from Mongmit and Mogok. As of now, the junta has not yet reentered these towns.
Other resistance groups that joined the TNLA in capturing Mogok have pledged to continue defending the town following the TNLA’s withdrawal, with reports suggesting that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is preparing to support the resistance efforts.
“A lot of PDF comrades fought in the battle for Mogok, so it’s not right for the TNLA alone to decide the town’s fate. That’s why we’re seeing resistance groups rallying and preparing to defend it. With reports that the KIA is joining in, it doesn’t look like the junta will be able to take the town easily,” said a military analyst monitoring the military situation in northern Shan State.
During the Three Brotherhood’s ‘Operation 1027,’ the junta lost 58.3 percent of its territories in northern Shan State. It later launched an offensive using large numbers of forcibly recruited conscripts and, with Chinese diplomatic pressure, managed to recapture 11.3 percent of the lost territories.
The junta has now regained control of 44.4 percent of the territories along the Mandalay–Muse trade route and is reportedly aiming to capture additional towns vital to China–Myanmar trade, ISP-Myanmar suggested.
“The junta will first try to gain legitimacy through the upcoming election it’s overseeing. Once that’s done, it will shift focus to the economy and expanding its military forces. It appears to be planning to consolidate power indefinitely by instilling fear among the public, which is why it is pushing hard to retake key territories before the election. After the election, its military momentum will probably slow down,” an Arakan (Rakhine) military analyst told DMG.
Despite its limited gains, the territories recaptured by the coup regime are mainly urban centers crucial to Myanmar–China border trade. While the junta now controls these towns and urban areas, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) continue to hold the majority of the surrounding rural and mountainous regions, according to ISP-Myanmar.
The regime is trying to restore administrative structures and public services. However, in rural areas, both the regime and the EAOs are competing to run parallel administrations, ISP-Myanmar reported.
