Clashes on the Arakan (Rakhine) State frontline may intensify following the junta’s decision to replace Major General Kyaw Swar Oo with Major General Kyaw Soe as the commander of the Western Region Military Command (Western Command) based in Arakan State, according to military analysts.
The newly appointed commander, Major General Kyaw Soe, is a Defence Services Academy (DSA) Intake 43 graduate and is reportedly the youngest among the current regional commanders. The DSA is widely regarded as the junta’s primary institution for training new-generation officers.
Before his appointment, Major General Kyaw Soe served as commander of Military Operations Command 7 (MOC 7), based in Pekon in southern Shan State, near the border of Karenni State.
Military analysts said his previous battlefield record suggests the regime could adopt a more offensive posture in Arakan State under his command, citing his operational achievements in Karenni State during his tenure in Pekon.
“As soon as he took over as regional commander, security tightened, and shootouts broke out in Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State. Under the current commander-in-chief General Ye Win Oo, many regional commanders are trying to show what they can do and prove themselves. They are pushing to retake lost territories. Since Major General Kyaw Soe is young and has had some military success in Karenni State, he may act more aggressively and launch offensives in Arakan State as well,” said Captain Zin Yaw, a former junta officer who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM)—a movement in which civil servants and security personnel refuse to work for the coup regime.
Although the junta has been eager to launch an offensive toward Ponnagyun, located close to Sittwe, its forces have been unable to advance due to the combat strength and defensive positioning of the Arakan Army (AA), which currently controls the town.
Captain Zin Yaw added that fighting could further escalate in the coming months, noting that AA commander-in-chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing has pledged to capture the entirety of Arakan State by 2027. At present, the AA controls most parts of Arakan State, while the junta retains control over three townships: Sittwe, Manaung, and Kyaukphyu.
In recent days, heavy clashes have been reported along the border areas between Sittwe and Ponnagyun townships. Military analysts say the junta has been using artillery shelling and airstrikes targeting villages in Ponnagyun and Rathedaung Township.
“There are daily artillery exchanges and drone strikes along the Sittwe frontline, with both sides trading heavy fire. The junta is supporting its ground forces with air power and naval artillery. At the same time, there are rumors that the AA could launch a major offensive on Sittwe during the rainy season, so it remains to be seen what happens,” a resident of Mose Island in Rathedaung Township said.
The junta is also attempting to push offensives into Arakan State from neighboring Chin State, Magway Region, Bago Region, and Ayeyarwady Region, while continuing to reinforce troops in Kyaukphyu and Sittwe townships.
There are also assessments suggesting that new commander-in-chief General Ye Win Oo is reshuffling regional commanders as part of a broader strategy to mount nationwide offensives aimed at retaking territory lost during the tenure of coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, who is now serving as president following a sham election.
“Commander-in-chief General Ye Win Oo has been reshuffling regional commanders and is pushing efforts to retake lost townships. Under his leadership, the junta is making all-out efforts to increase military pressure and launch offensives on the Arakan frontline as well. With both the new commander-in-chief and newly appointed regional commanders, fighting across Myanmar is likely to intensify further,” an Arakan-based military observer said.
After the AA captured the Western Command headquarters and Ann Town in December 2024, the command headquarters relocated to Sittwe MOC, from where it currently oversees operations in the three remaining townships under junta control in Arakan State.
Since mid-2025, the junta has managed to retake towns in northern Shan State, Chin State, and Karen State, as well as in parts of Mandalay Region, Sagaing Region, and Tanintharyi Region.
Following the 2021 coup, resistance forces have captured and controlled 104 towns across 10 regions and states in Myanmar. The junta has since managed to recapture 19 of those towns.
