A proposed cross-border gas pipeline project between Myanmar and Bangladesh cannot move forward without the explicit approval of the Arakan Army (AA), which controls the vast majority of Rakhine (Arakan) State and the entire border between the two nations, political analysts said.

The proposal gained momentum following an Aug. 2 meeting in Dhaka between Bangladesh’s Minister of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Iqbal Hassan Mahmood, and Myanmar Ambassador U Kyaw Soe Moe. During the talks, Bangladesh formally expressed interest in purchasing natural gas from Myanmar’s offshore Shwe gas project and piping it to Chittagong to help address growing domestic energy shortages.

However, regional experts stress that the junta lacks the territorial control required to deliver on such a commitment.

"The AA controls approximately 90 percent of Arakan State, including the entire border area with Bangladesh," said U Myo Kyaw, an Arakan political analyst. "Transporting gas through Arakan territory requires the AA’s consent. Without it, there is simply no way this project can move forward."

Since early 2024, the AA has established full control over key border townships, including Buthidaung and Maungdaw, as well as Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin State, effectively placing cross-border transit corridors under its administration. Meanwhile, heavy fighting continues around major strategic hubs, including Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.

Despite the military challenges, analysts suggest the pipeline could offer strategic opportunities for the ethnic armed organization if managed effectively.

U Aung Min Oo, editor-in-chief of Development Media Group (DMG), noted that the AA might support the project provided it delivers direct economic benefits to the local population and offers a degree of international recognition.

"Whether it is gas or oil, any transit through Arakan territory requires some level of recognition for the AA," Aung Min Oo said. "Politically, this project could help the AA secure a seat on the international stage. The AA welcomes foreign investment that brings mutual benefits."

While AA Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing has previously acknowledged the need to foster good relations with Dhaka, formal communication channels between the Bangladeshi government and the AA remain limited to routine border management issues.