The Myanmar military junta has zero path to victory in Rakhine State, having effectively lost its footing against the Arakan Army (AA) despite committing roughly one-fifth of its entire ground force to the offensive, according to CDM Captain Zin Yaw.

In an interview with Narinjara News, the former military officer detailed the staggering scope of the regime's deployment. While Rakhine historically hosts 13 native infantry battalions, the junta has rushed a total of 113 battalions into the region. 

Out of 552 total battalions comprising the entire Myanmar army, the regime is utilizing nearly 20% of its total ground strength exclusively to combat the AA.

The massive troop concentration includes 10 active infantry divisions (ID): seven redeployed from neighboring regions—ID 66 (Ayeyarwady), Military Operation Command (MOC) 10 (Nyaungkyo), ID 55 (Mindon), MOC 17 and 20 (Nat Yay Kan), and ID 99 (near Paletwa)—alongside MOC 5, 9, and 15 operating directly under the Rakhine Western Command.

Despite supplementing this vast ground deployment with heavy air and naval support, Captain Zin Yaw emphasized that the campaign has completely collapsed.

"If you cannot win after committing one-fifth of your entire army's battalions alongside other military branches, you have completely lost the war," Captain Zin Yaw stated. "It is safe to assume there is no path to victory left for them."

The junta continues to push offensives into Rakhine from the Ayeyarwady, Magway, and Bago regions, as well as southern Chin State. However, relentless counterattacks by the Arakan Army continue to inflict severe casualties on the advancing forces.

Photo - Crd