The Karen National Union (KNU) has disputed a report saying the group controls about one third of the border area with Thailand and claims that it instead controls 90 per cent of the border area.

The 21 July 2025 report by the Institute of Strategy and Policy - Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) estimated that, as of 15 July 2025, the KNU controls approximately 800 km (497 miles), or about a third, of the approximately 2,416 km (1,501 miles) long border with Thailand.

The report said that since the February 2021 coup the KNU has been “increasingly focused on securing borderlands rather than advancing deeper into central Myanmar,” and that as a result it now controls over 340 miles (550km) of the border in Karen State and over 150 miles (240km) of the border in Tanintharyi Region, as well as controlling an estimated 61 per cent of Karen State.

The report also said that the KNU’s “Control of these frontier areas offers strategic advantages, including expanded territorial consolidation, improved access to resources, and greater influence over Myanmar-Thailand border trade routes and border security.”

In an exclusive interview with KIC, Padoh Saw Taw Nee, a KNU Spokesperson, disputed the ISP Myanmar report and instead claimed that the KNU controls 90 percent of the border, almost three times more than reported by ISP-Myanmar. He also claimed that the group controls thousands of kilometres of border and claimed, incorrectly, that ISP Myanmar did not take into account the border in Tanintharyi Region.

He said: “In fact, around 90 per cent of the Thailand-Myanmar border is already under our control.

In KNU Brigade 4 territory, the only junta outpost left is the Nat Aei Taung military base. I believe the report didn’t take into account the border areas stretching all the way to Kawthaung, Myanmar’s southernmost town. The stretch of border we now control spans thousands of kilometres, which marks a significant achievement.”

Another reason for the difference in the KNU and ISP Myanmar’s figures might be that whereas ISP Myanmar was looking at the entire border from Tachileik in Shan State down to Kawthaung in Tanintharyi Region, the KNU might only have been looking at the border areas in Karen State and Tanintharyi Region. But, according to a map in the ISP-Myanmar report, the KNU does not control 90 per cent of the border in Karen State and Tanintharyi Region, though it does show that the KNU controls about 90 per cent of the border in Karen State.

Padoh Saw Taw Nee also spoke about the KNU initiative to establish the Kawthoolei government, which takes its name from the name Karen people give to their homeland. He explained that the Kawthoolei government  aims to run a civil service and administrations in KNU-controlled areas and that it is now starting to receive the necessary resources from the border areas controlled by the KNU.

He said: “Without resources, it’s impossible to run a government. While our focus has been on military matters, we’re also working to provide administrative and civil services. We’re already receiving the resources we need from the border areas.”

The KNU Central Executive Committee announced in a 14 June television broadcast that the Kawthoolei government is currently about 80 per cent established and that its goal is to join a future federal government of Myanmar.

During the first half of 2025, the KNU seized junta outposts and bases in Hpa-An District in the area where KNU Brigade 7 is based. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the KNU’s armed wing, captured about 15 junta bases and camps in the southern part of Karen State’s Myawaddy Township, where KNU Brigade 6 operates. It also captured junta bases and camps in Tanintharyi Region’s Dawei Township in the area where KNU Brigade 4 is based.

Padoh Saw Taw Nee said that controlling the border area will not only enable the KNU to secure the resources needed to establish a government but also help it to strengthen its relations with Thailand. He then called on the Karen community to unite and contribute to building a strong regional government based on the promising foundations built by the KNU.

He also claimed that the junta’s only remaining positions on the border with Thailand in Karen State and Tanintharyi Region are: the Methawaw base in the area where KNU Brigade 7 is based; the Wawlay Tactical Operations Command and the Htee Ther Lel outpost in the area where KNU Brigade 6 is based; and the Nat Aei Taung base in the area where KNU Brigade 4 is based.