If the junta extends its unilateral ceasefire to allow for post-earthquake relief, it is highly likely that it will ignore it and continue offensive military operations.
The junta previously announced a unilateral ceasefire from 2 to 22 April 2025 to allow for post-earthquake relief. But, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, announced that the junta had agreed to extend its ceasefire, to facilitate the effective delivery of humanitarian aid to earthquake-affected areas. This followed a 17 April meeting he had with the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.
Captain Zin Yaw, a former Myanmar military officer who joined the anti-coup Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) predicted that though the junta may announce an extension to its ceasefire to appease the international community, in reality its attacks and offensives are likely to continue unabated.
He said to Than Lwin Times: "The junta could announce a ceasefire mainly to secure the aid it needs from international and regional communities. However, instead of using that aid for the people, it would likely use it to support its armed forces and rebuild its administrative departments damaged by the earthquake. Even if it extends the ceasefire, in reality, it’s likely to escalate its military operations on the ground.”
The junta ignored its first unilateral ceasefire that it claimed would run from 2 to 22 April and continued to launch airstrikes and military operations against resistance forces and civilians in areas where the resistance is strong and the junta has lost control.
Another CDM participant, former air force officer Captain Zay Ya, criticised the junta’s initial ceasefire saying that the junta was continuing to attack civilians in areas where the resistance is strong, to put pressure on resistance forces.
He said: “We’re seeing the junta increasingly target local populations in areas where resistance forces operate, trying to put pressure on these groups. So, even if the junta extends the temporary ceasefire, we don’t expect it to stop its ongoing attacks.”
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) denounced the junta for continuing military operations during its ceasefire at a time when its sole focus should be on ensuring humanitarian aid reaches disaster zones.
According to an 11 April statement by OHCHR, the junta carried out over 120 attacks after the deadly earthquake had hit, with over half of them occurring after the junta announced the start of its unilateral ceasefire on 2 April.
Ravina Shamdasani, an OHCHR spokesperson said: “Numerous strikes have been reported in populated areas, many of them appearing to amount to indiscriminate attacks and to breach the principle of proportionality in international humanitarian law.”
Anwar Ibrahim met with the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok on 17 April 2025. He had an online meeting with the prime minister of Myanmar’s anti-coup National Unity Government (NUG), Mahn Winn Khaing Thann, on 18 April.
Following the meetings he revealed that both the junta and the NUG had agreed to extend their ceasefires to facilitate the effective delivery of humanitarian aid to earthquake-affected areas.
The NUG’s unilateral ceasefire ran from 1 to 20 April 2025. As of 21 April the NUG had not announced any extension of its ceasefire.
The junta’s unilateral ceasefire was due to run from 2 to 22 April. As of 21 April it also had not announced an extension to its ceasefire.
