Another ASEAN's Special Envoy Attempts to Mediate Myanmar Crisis Can Lao Envoy Succeed, where all previous Asean efforts Failed?

Another ASEAN's Special Envoy Attempts to Mediate Myanmar Crisis Can Lao Envoy Succeed, where all previous Asean efforts Failed?

Laotian Diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun, appointed as the Asean special envoy to Myanmar, conducted an online discussion with Daw Zin Mar Aung, the foreign minister of th  National Unity Government (NUG) during the 2nd week of January.

The government of Laos, holds the current rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) .

U Kyaw Zaw, the spokesperson for NUG’s presidential office, asserted that the Military Council, while initially endorsing the implementation of ASEAN's five-point consensus, perversely obstructed any implementation. He stressed the Junta had deliberately disrupted efforts to address key issues, including the release of political prisoners, cessation of violence, and facilitation of humanitarian aid.

The online meeting with NUG’s foreign minister had discussed the reasons behind the failure of the five-point consensus enacted by ASEAN to address the Myanmar crisis, to get to know each other better and to exchange mutual perspectives.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed that ASEAN’s special envoy Alounkeo had a meeting with Nong Rong, the Deputy Foreign Minister of China. In the meeting conducted on January 22nd, the two discussed matters concerning Myanmar, along with addressing China-ASEAN relations and collaboration in the East Asian region, as stated by the ministry.

ASEAN's special envoy also visited Myanmar on January 10th, engaged in meetings with coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, as well as leaders of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA)-signatory ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and some political parties.

Last year when the Indonesian government assumed the role of ASEAN's rotating chair, there were meetings and discussions with NUG, although both sides did not publicly disclose them.

Laos, the current rotating chair of ASEAN for 2024, is set to host an ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Plenary Meeting on January 28th and 29th.

Following his appointment as ASEAN's special envoy, Alounkeo has been initiating discussions with stakeholders associated with the Myanmar crisis in various capacities. Analysts within the ASEAN community speculate that Alounkeo is inclined to tackle the Myanmar crisis using his own methods, rather than adhering to the tripartite solution favored by Indonesia, one of the previous ASEAN countries that had appointed special envoys.

However two previous Myanmar envoys from Indonesia and Cambodia. both countries with vastly more experience of conflict resolution and international diplomacy foreign than Laos, both failed to make any headway with the recalcitrant Myanmar coup regime. The previous Cambodian envoy, well-seasoned diplomat Prak Sokhan later referred to the position of Asean envoy attempting to mediate with the Myanmar regime, as “ a mission impossible.”

The only chance for the new envoy Alounkeo to make any headway depends on whether  Myanmar’s coup- leader response to recent military setbacks will force him to finally make some concessions to holding a regional dialogue. But observers point out that any regional dialogue without the NUG and ethnic organizations would be meaningless.

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