Myanmar junta supporting Telegram channels have been posting that the second phase of the 1027 offensive in northern Shan State is a proxy war and not a civil war.
A proxy war is where a nation state supports a non state actor involved in conflict, usually with another nation state.
In what seemed to be a coordinated action, multiple junta supporting channels put up posts saying that China is responsible for the second phase of the 1027 offensive which has now reached Lashio, home to the junta’s Northeastern Command Military Headquarters.
On 16 July, the the junta-aligned Ye’ Ba Nyein Telegram channel claimed that China was behind the attack on Lashio. Other junta-aligned Telegram channels, including Mai Wei, Sergeant Po Si, Ko Thet, and Thazin Oo, echoed this sentiment.
They alleged that China is supporting the Three Brotherhood Alliance of ethnic armed organisations involved in the 1027 offensive in northern Shan State because it is upset that the Myanmar junta refused to re-open a border gate under terms agreed by China.
Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based analyst of China-Myanmar relations, argued that the junta is spreading this anti-China propaganda to divert criticism and animosity aimed at it due to its battlefield losses.
He said: “The Military Council lobbyists now criticize China because it [The Military Council] has lost many battles. The MNDAA [the Myanmar National Democracy Alliance Army] is not a creation of China; it originated from the Communist Party of Burma. Weapons are not provided by China; they are simply more accessible.”
He added that China’s primary concern is to prevent the conflict from spreading over into Chinese territory.
When the first phase of Operation 1027 began in October 2023, the junta’s spokesperson described it as an act of aggression involving China, prompting widespread anti-China protests among junta supporters.
In early January 2024, a temporary ceasefire for northern Shan State, known as the Haigeng Agreement, was mediated by China. However, this was broken on 25 June 2024, which led to the second phase of the 1027 offensive.
Since the ceasefire broke down there has been intense fighting in the northern Shan townships of Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Mogok, Madaya and Lashio. Within a month of the offensive recommencing, junta troops had to abandon several of their camps, including in Nawnghkio Town.
National Unity Government (NUG) led people’s defence forces (PDFs) are also attacking junta military camps in Mandalay Region’s Madaya and Singu townships.
U Maung Maung Swe, the Deputy Secretary of the NUG’s Ministry of Defense said: “The common goal of the ethnic alliances and our National Unity Government is clear: we will accept any help and work together to defeat the military dictatorship. The Military Council’s propaganda, through their lobbyists, reflects their loss of trust.”
The MNDAA, a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, announced a four-day unilateral ceasefire at China’s request, from 14 to 18 July whilst the third plenary session of the ruling China Communist Party is taking place in Beijing.
